A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
